nzherald.co.nzThe cited sources give this account: Trump has rejected the Iranian agreement, causing markets to react with increased pressure on oil prices. Investment strategist Zoe Wallace from Forsyth Barr explains that there was hope for progress in talks, but Trump's actions have disrupted this, leading to uncertainty in the market (ad). The focus of the market is currently on economic data, particularly oil prices, inflation, and bond yields. Wallace notes that there is a lack of significant corporate news, with only a few companies announcing their results this week. A temporary ceasefire was expected to provide some relief, but Trump's rejection has put upward pressure on oil prices. Wallace suggests that the market is primarily driven by geopolitical events rather than corporate performance.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise interest rates tomorrow, which could put pressure on the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar. This is due to the stronger economy (ad) and inflationary pressures in Australia, making their interest rates higher than New Zealand's. This is according to Zoe Wallace from Forsyth Barr.
The global oil market (ad) is tightening, with the loss of about 2 million barrels per day from crude exports in the Middle East and a further 2 million barrels per day from Russia due to Ukraine’s drone attacks. This is expected to keep oil prices significantly higher than previous forecasts.
The average (ad) crude oil prices are expected to stay significantly higher, with Brent heading for $120 per barrel in Q4 and the average Brent prices for 2026 staying around $92 per barrel. This is due to the recent turn of events that are shrinking global inventories and slowing global supplies.
The exact impact of a temporary ceasefire on oil prices and global markets remains uncertain, as the market (ad) is primarily driven by geopolitical events rather than corporate performance. Trump's rejection of the agreement proposed by the Iranians has disrupted hopes for progress in talks, potentially leading to increased oil prices.